Happy Da’Vine Joy Randolph Season

Senior Producer Perri Nemiroff is keeping you up to date on the leading contenders for 2024’s Oscar for Best Supporting Actress based on her knowledge of industry trends and whispers. Check in for updates often because anything can change over the next couple of weeks.

It’s not easy to emerge as an early frontrunner in an Academy Awards race and sustain the momentum needed to power through the entire season. Still, someone has done it in the Best Supporting Actress category. In fact she’s one of the surest bets you can make this year. As for the remaining four slots on this list, after this morning’s Screen Actors Guild nominations, it’s likely that three have been claimed, but there’s still wiggle room for one.

Here’s where things stand as of January 10th, 2024:

Wondering why I haven’t selected Penélope Cruz after she scored a SAG nomination for her work in Ferrari? There’s a few reasons. Yes, a SAG nomination can be a solid indicator that you’re on the Academy Award nomination path, but it isn’t a given. Often, the nominees don’t line up entirely. Yes, Cruz is a contender now that she’s in the mix for the SAG Awards. Still, I don’t think she’ll make the cut with the Academy, given that Ferrari isn’t proving to be a strong awards season contender in general. As for the others in contention for this spot, now that none of them are SAG nominees, things become even more uncertain. That nomination could have been just what these individuals needed to tip the scale in their direction.

First, don’t brush off Saltburn in general this awards season, especially Rosamund Pike in this category. Yes, a SAG nomination for Pike, Barry Keoghan, or the ensemble would have strengthened this case, but the rousing response the movie is getting is undeniable. On the other hand, Taraji P. Henson didn’t get an individual SAG nomination but The Color Purple did score the coveted Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture nod, which could signal widespread support for the film, perhaps even wide enough for it to snag two nominations in the Best Supporting Actress category at the Oscars.

The other heavyweight worth watching here is Julianne Moore for May December. She has two things working against her now though. First, Charles Melton is consuming the spotlight for the Netflix release, with some even predicting he has a chance of being a surprise winner in Best Supporting Actor. However, the second thing that could hinder that rise to the top, and the movie’s Oscar chances in general, is that the SAG Awards completely shut out the film.

With all that said, let’s get into the picks!

5 America Ferrera

‘Barbie’

Why give America Ferrera for Barbie the edge over the others I discussed above? For one, Warner Bros. is pushing hard for the film, and it’s paying off. Barbie continues to be everywhere, and keeping the film fresh in voters’ minds throughout the season is vital. The second significant reason Ferrera could have a better chance of getting this nomination? Barbie is the biggest film of 2023 and has ingrained itself into pop culture, Ferrara’s unforgettable speech included. Want another reason? Barbie is now a nominee for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Again, this race is tight, but Ferrera has the most working in her favor right now.

Watch on Max

4 Jodie Foster

‘Nyad’

Jodie Foster has gone from someone with a decent shot at snagging a Best Supporting Actress nomination at the Oscars to someone with a very strong chance courtesy of her Screen Actors Guild nomination today. In addition to the SAG nod bolstering her chances with the Academy, Foster is a beloved icon in this industry. Let’s not forget that she delivers a phenomenal performance playing someone who is a true ray of light in the Nyad: Bonnie Stoll, Diana Nyad’s best friend and highly dedicated swim coach. I walked away from my first screening of Nyad thinking, “How lucky one must be to have a friend like Bonnie?” If the film makes that same lasting impression on others, Foster will be right where she needs to be to get this nomination: on top of many voters’ minds. Foster getting rave reviews for her work in True Detective Season 4 during the voting period certainly won’t hurt either.

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3 Emily Blunt

‘Oppenheimer’

The Oppenheimer domination continues. Emily Blunt has been on this list since July. If anything, she’s only further cemented her place here, and a nomination is as close to a sure thing as one can get. In most cases, it’s hard to hit theaters earlier in the year and power through the Oscar season. For Blunt, however, having more time to watch and re-watch Oppenheimer will serve her campaign well. The quality of her work is undeniable on first watch, but her performance as Kitty Oppenheimer gets better with each go-around. Who’s re-watching a three-hour film, you ask? Well, look at Oppenheimer’s box office total. It’s a lot of people. Second, Academy members have had ample opportunity to see the film multiple times, whether in theaters or at home. Again, Blunt is phenomenal in the film, period. But Kitty’s actions in the movie and how they frame Oppenheimer’s choices add a vital layer to this story, one that comes into focus considerably the more one sits with the film.

Rent on Apple

2 Danielle Brooks

‘The Color Purple’

The Color Purple is undoubtedly and deservedly getting attention elsewhere in awards categories. But Danielle Brooks’ turn as Sofia is the film’s runaway favorite. She commands the screen every moment she’s on it. It’s impossible not to be completely taken by Sofia’s ferocity, sense of self-worth, and energy. She’s a true scene-stealer amid an A+ ensemble, and many are taking notice. She’s already got the Critics Choice nomination and now the coveted SAG nod. On top of that, The Color Purple’s Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture nomination from SAG could signal widespread support for the film, which bodes well for any actor from the movie who’s eying a nod from the Academy.

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1 Da’Vine Joy Randolph

‘The Holdovers’

Honestly, though, this race has been over since The Holdovers premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival. This season is Da’Vine Joy Randolph‘s victory tour, a joyous, well-deserved one already in full swing. Randolph’s Critics Choice nomination could become a win next weekend. She’s also a nominee at the Independent Spirit Awards, took home Best Supporting Actress at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards, and won the category for the National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics Circle Awards. Add to that her Screen Actors Guild nomination, and she couldn’t be in a better position to snag both an Oscar nomination and a win.

Watch on Peacock

For predictions covering all the major categories, visit our complete Oscar prospectus here and keep coming back. This race is only just beginning. For predictions covering all the major categories, visit our complete Oscar prospectus here and keep coming back. This race is only just beginning.