One Key Stat To Monitor For Every Indiana Pacers Player This Season

The Indiana Pacers are entering a season in which they will balance their hopes of success with their need to develop. Many players on the roster have stated their desire to make the playoffs this season, but over half of the team’s rotation has less than four years of NBA experience. They will look to grow while stacking victories.

That’s difficult to do, but not impossible. It also means the goals for the players on the team are different. Some need to improve, especially in certain skill areas. Others need to maintain their strengths in order to help the team be successful. Context is important for the currently-building Pacers.

Each player has a key statistic or two that could define their season. Looking at the 15-man roster, breaking those stats down is a helpful way to look at the Pacers goals in the upcoming season.

Players are sorted alphabetically by last name.

Bruce Brown — Defensive rating when on court

Indiana signed Brown early in free agency. His contract is perfect for the building team within the new CBA, and he helps the Pacers by adding to what they already have.

He’s excellent in transition and can play many roles, which will enhance the blue and gold’s identity. But Brown’s most desirable skill for Indiana is his on-ball defense. If he can slow opposing attackers and keep them out of the paint, that would help the team fix one of its big weaknesses. A defensive rating jump with Brown on the court would show signs of success in that way.

Tyrese Haliburton — Free throw attempts per game

Haliburton is a star, and the Pacers paid him like one this summer. He is the face of the franchise and is already an elite talent.

His combination of shooting, passing, and scoring is rare throughout history. He would reach another level if he was able to get to the foul line more often. Haliburton’s 3.6 free throw attempts per game ranked 57th in the NBA last year, behind players like Jordan Clarkson and Spencer Dinwiddie. Most star players are at five-plus foul shots per game.

Haliburton is a master at making the right play on drives between his passing and finishing. Drawing more fouls would make him even harder to guard, especially in the paint.

Buddy Hield — Offensive rating without Haliburton

Despite being surrounded by contract extension and trade rumors, Hield still has an important role to play as a shooter for the Pacers this season. He ranked second in three-pointers made in the NBA last season.

This year, with Bennedict Mathurin ascending and Brown in the mix, Hield projects to come off the bench. If that does happen, he will play less often with Haliburton, and the two are a great pair. Per pbpstats, Indiana’s offensive rating with Hield and Haliburton on the floor last season was 119.7. Remove Haliburton from the mix, and that number dropped to 111.4.

Hield is talented, but a key part of his success this campaign could be finding a way to succeed in minutes without the star point guard. If he can’t, the Pacers will have to manage their rotation in a way that pairs the two as often as possible.

Isaiah Jackson — Foul rate

Jackson is still just 21-years old and has ridiculous athletic abilities. He can fly, and his game expands out from his bounce around the basket.

His eagerness to make plays on defense has been his biggest downfall during his career — he’s averaged 5.6 fouls per 36 minutes across the last two seasons. Last year, his per-minute foul rate was the third-worst in the league. He needs to trim it down.

Bennedict Mathurin — Assists per game

Mathurin is a terrific isolation attacker, and his free throw rate was 13th in the association as a rookie — ahead of Damian Lillard and percentage points away from Luka Doncic. He has a special base.

But to fit with Haliburton perfectly, he needs to add more as an outside shooter (32.3% from deep last season) or as a passer (1.5 assists per game). The passing feels more important on a team that plays fast and tosses the ball around often. That’s been the message from the team this summer, they want to see the second-year guard be a better distributor.

Upping his assists per game, or even moving his assist-to-turnover ratio from the negatives to the positives, would go a long way for the 2022 lottery pick.

T.J. McConnell — Drives

McConnell’s exact role for the coming season isn’t clear, but he had a strong 2022-23 season. His efficiency spiked, and he reclaimed some of his mid-range mastery. The veteran is one of the best bench guards in the league.

Last year, he was second on the Pacers in drives per game (12.9). That figure approached Haliburton’s despite a significant difference in minutes. Because McConnell can get to the rim and make plays from in the paint, both as a scorer and passer, Indiana doesn’t have to change their identity much when the second unit comes in.

McConnell needs to maintain that skill if he is going to have a successful season. Otherwise, bench groups could stall out.

Andrew Nembhard — Minutes played without Haliburton or McConnell

Nembhard played point guard during his entire basketball journey until joining the Pacers last season. As a rookie, he started often off the ball — partially thanks to his defense and partially thanks to his smart movement away from the action.

This year, if summer league and team goals are any indication, he will get more reps as a ball handler. How many will be telling. If he is in the wing rotation, and McConnell is the backup point guard, then the answer might be small. If he is the backup point guard who gets some wing minutes, the answer could be a lot.

Last year, Nembhard played 673 minutes without the other point guards. That’s a lot, but over half of them came after March 1, when injuries and changed goals took over. Perhaps that late-season stretch is a sign of things to come for this season, but that will be decided by Indiana’s objectives.

Aaron Nesmith — Three-point percentage

Aaron Nesmith had a solid first season in Indiana, starting 60 times and providing juice on both ends. His defense, athleticism, and shooting were all at a high-enough level to raise his status as a player. He is now firmly a rotation-caliber wing.

If he wants to move up another tier and be a three-and-D master, his three-point percentage needs to climb this season. He shot 36.6% from deep last year, another uptick in percentage would make Nesmith a key part of the Pacers young core.

Jordan Nwora — Minutes played

Nwora did everything asked of him after being traded to the Pacers in February, but he still is likely on the outside of the rotation looking in. The additions of Brown, Obi Toppin, and Jarace Walker will make minutes hard to come by for the 25-year old.

He scored more than 13 points per game for the blue and gold last season but is probably the 11th or 12th man in a 10-man rotation. How often he plays will be telling. If Nwora hits the court often, he either has improved tremendously or Indiana is dealing with many injuries. Either reason would be significant.

The three-year pro is in a contract year as well, so he will be fighting for as much playing time as he can get.

Ben Sheppard — Dribbles per game

Ben Sheppard was drafted 26th overall back in June, and his shooting was a big factor. The off-ball guard shot 41.5% on 193 three-point attempts during his final season at Belmont.

No skill is guaranteed in the NBA, but if Sheppard continues to shoot it well from deep in the pros, the Pacers will naturally wonder what else he can do. If the 22-year old can comfortably put the ball on the floor without making errors or slowing down the offense, that would go a long way towards proving he can be more than a shooter.

Jalen Smith — Three-point percentage

When Myles Turner is in the game for the Pacers, which he was for nearly 30 minutes per game last season, he provides a shooting touch at the center position. Turner knocked down 37.3% of his outside shots last season, and that accuracy made Indiana difficult to defend.

Smith has shown flashes of being a decent outside shooter. After being dealt to Indiana in February of 2022, he canned 37.3% of his outside shots down the stretch of the campaign (83 attempts). But that skill went away last season as the three-year pro was a 28.3% shooter from deep.

If the 23-year old can re-establish himself as a weapon from beyond the arc, that would help the Pacers maintain their offensive identity regardless of which center is on the court. His career percentage from outside (29.7%) suggests that will be a challenge, but he has constantly improved throughout his career.

Daniel Theis — Pace

Theis is a bruising big man who sets nasty screens, and that makes him valuable. His style of play was perfect for what Germany needed in the Basketball World Cup this summer when they took home a gold medal.

But Theis is better in slower offensive styles. Indiana plays fast, they ranked fifth in pace last season. The veteran big man is talented, but he has some fit concerns.

Last season, Indiana’s pace jumped by 1.43 with Theis off the floor per pbpstats. The team’s pace was 99.03 with the big man on the court, the lowest of any player with more than three appearances for the team. If he can slide into a faster style, he will be more effective for the blue and gold.

Obi Toppin — Touches per game

Toppin was traded to the Pacers in July after a three-year stint with the Knicks. The athletic forward thrives in the open floor, which makes him a good fit in Indiana. He and Haliburton are, on paper, a good duo.

Opportunity will be helpful for Toppin. The 25-year old ranked 291st in the NBA with 25.6 touches per game last season, a shockingly low number. New York had many capable forwards and better offensive options, so it makes sense why they played the way they did. But Toppin was buried.

In Indiana, that number will be higher. How much higher will be determined by how well Toppin is playing and how well he fits with the Pacers.

Myles Turner — Defensive rating when on court

Myles Turner is one of the best defensive centers in the NBA. He controls the paint in drop coverage and can contain a ton of space with his mobility. Without his ability to read the game, Indiana’s defense would fall apart.

Last season, Turner played in a starting five that was atrocious on defense. They allowed so much paint pressure that the big man couldn’t play to his strengths defensively. In the end, Indiana had a worse defensive rating with Turner on the court (118.7) than off (118.0), per pbpstats.

The additions of Brown and Jarace Walker as well as internal growth from others on the roster should make the Pacers a better defensive team. Ideally, that shows up in the lineup data for Turner. He needs to be a part of the blue and gold’s best defensive units, and his defensive rating should be reflective of an improved defensive team.

Jarace Walker — Assist rate

Walker was the Pacers big prize from the 2023 NBA Draft. The mobile defender was a force in summer league thanks to his defensive playmaking and power. He looked like an older, larger player in the exhibitions.

The 20-year old has toggled between several offensive roles between his high school and collegiate seasons, including both point guard and center. What he will be offensively in the NBA is difficult to know.

His shooting is a question mark. It would be wonderful for the Pacers if he is a great three-point threat, but Walker’s passing feels more important early in his career. If he can be an additive playmaker, both in pick-and-rolls and as a ball handler, then he should be a snug fit in many Pacers lineups.

Indiana kicks off training camp on Tuesday, with the preseason starting next weekend.