washington – In mid-April, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. he got on the ballot as an independent presidential candidate in Utah and Michigan, though his campaign says it's working to get him into all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Kennedy's supporters insist he is not pursuing his bid for the White House only to hand the election to another candidate. They say he is the real deal and has a shot at winning the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election.
Getting on the ballot in enough states to get 270 votes, just over half of the 538 Electoral College votes, is no small feat for a third-party contender. But it is possible.
“I think he has a very good chance of getting the 50 votes,” said Bernard Tamas, an associate professor of political science at Valdosta State University who studies third parties. “The short answer is I can't say definitively that it will, but it looks like it's on its way.”
David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Kennedy's campaign says it has completed gathering signatures in seven other states in addition to Utah and Michigan: Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nebraska and Iowa.
The super PAC supporting Kennedy, American Values ââ2024, says it has collected enough signatures in Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina.
And yet the campaign has yet to complete paperwork and file petitions in those states. He noted that he still has months in most states to submit the paperwork because most states' deadlines aren't until July or August.
The campaign says it is trying to sidestep legal battles by choosing the right time to present the petitions, keeping signatures until the 11th hour in hopes that the signatures will face fewer challenges.
Kennedy has already run into one paperwork snafu in Nevada. In March, the campaign learned it would likely have to start the signature process over after failing to include a vice presidential candidate on the petition it used to gather signatures in the state.
“After successfully collecting all the signatures we need in Nevada, the DNC Goon Squad and their lackeys in the Nevada Secretary of State's office are straight up inventing a new requirement for the petition with zero legal basis,” said Kennedy campaign ballot access attorney Paul Rossi. complained.
In addition to various state regulations for access to the polls and costly legal battles, Kennedy faces opposition from Democratic groups seeking to undermine third-party campaigns.
Earlier this year, the Democratic National Committee formed a team to challenge independent and third-party presidential candidates. The effort will rely on other groups such as Third Way, MoveOn and a new super PAC, Clear Choice, backed by allies of President Biden.
“Only two candidates have a path to 270 electoral votes: President Biden and Donald Trump,” said DNC spokesman Matt Corridoni. “The stakes are high and we know it's going to be a close election. That's why a vote for any third-party candidate is a vote for Donald Trump.”
Kennedy's campaign said it plans to secure access to the polls in all 50 states, rejecting suggestions that Kennedy is seeking to help former President Donald Trump's bid for the presidency by taking votes from Mr. Biden.
“Our campaign is a spoiler. I agree with that. It's a spoiler for President Biden and for President Trump,” Kennedy said when he revealed his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, last month.
In some states, the deadline for collecting signatures is short. Others have provisions for meeting signature thresholds in each county of a state. More than half of the states require independent candidates to have a running mate.
Collecting enough signatures is not difficult in every state. Many only need 1,000 to 5,000 signatures, Tamas said. Louisiana requires no signatures and a $500 fee. Other states have higher thresholds. Texas requires more than 113,000 signatures and Florida requires more than 145,000.
And this is the number of valid signatures required. Any third-party candidate must exceed this target to ensure that it is sufficient in case some of the signatures are found to be invalid.
In states like Hawaii, where the Kennedy campaign claims to have gathered enough signatures, it is more convenient to run under a party affiliation than as an independent candidate. Kennedy supporters are also collecting signatures in California, Mississippi, North Carolina and Delaware to establish the “We The People” party, which can then nominate Kennedy as a presidential candidate.
Kennedy's campaign says it aims to raise 60 percent over the signature threshold in each state.
“We have the field teams, volunteers, legal teams, paid circulators, supporters and strategists ready to get the job done,” said campaign press secretary Stefanie Spear. “We are beating all of our benchmarks and will be announcing new statuses every week.”
But Tamas says Kennedy should aim higher, closer to double the required number of signatures.
“I'm surprised they're saying it's as low as 60, you just can't take any chances,” Tamas said.
Collecting signatures is expensive. Kennedy's super PAC estimates it will cost $40 million to $50 million just to collect all the necessary signatures, though Tamas noted that RFK Jr.'s running mate Shanahan, the billionaire ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin , has the finances. resources.
Collecting the signatures isn't the hardest part â it's the battle for the signatures that's the real struggle, Tamas said. The Democratic Party will fight hard to invalidate Kennedy's signatures.
“You really have to prepare for a battle, so a lot of the cost is not getting the signatures, but the legal fees of fighting for each state,” Tamas said.
Members of the Democratic Party are already trying to block Kennedy from voting in Hawaii and Michigan.
Historically, there have been independent candidates who have secured ballot access in almost every state. In 1968, George Wallace, the former governor of Alabama, and in 1992, businessman Ross Perot appeared on the ballot in all 50 states. Ralph Nader's 2000 candidacy spanned 43 states.
Only Wallace managed to win any electoral votes. Perot's impressive 19% of the popular vote in 1992 did not translate into the Electoral College.
Former Perot campaign manager Russell Verney said third-party candidates have more hurdles to overcome today than in the past.
“Every time there's a reasonably successful independent candidate, state legislatures, which are made up of Republicans and Democrats, who by definition don't like competition, raise state barriers to getting to the polls,” Verney said. . “The requirements to participate on these state ballots continue to become more onerous each election cycle.”
But “someone in RFK's position, I don't think the Democrats would stop him,” Tamas said. “I think he's going to participate, if not all, probably most of the ballots.”
A successful third-party candidate must focus on people who are not represented by the major parties, Tamas said, and that's a problem for Kennedy.
“It's all over the place, and it's really not clear what disaffected group it's trying to reach,” Tamas said. “He's running around with conspiracy theories as part of it. But if somebody's a conspiracy theorist, chances are they're going to support Donald Trump.”
At this point, Kennedy's ballot petitions have been validated in every state where his website says signature gathering is complete: Nevada, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, Iowa, North Carolina and New Hampshire , in addition to Louisiana, which, as noted, does. it has no signature requirement, and in the two states where it is on the ballot, it could win 73 electoral votes. Add in the three states where his super PAC says it has the signatures, and that's 36 more, putting him at 109.
The latest YouGov/Economist national poll shows Biden and Trump tied at 44% and Kennedy at 3%.
Kennedy's support is likely to wane before November, Tamas predicted.
But it remains unclear whether Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump may lose more than Kennedy's presidential bid.
“Nobody knows for sure whose votes he's going to take,” Tamas said.
