South American FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers Resume

Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymansk are the authors of the international best selling book ‘Soccernomics.’ This incredible read takes a look at the beautiful game from an angle that is more data driven and frighteningly insightful. Chapters of the book focus on various themes like the science of penalties, why some countries win and others lose and the relation between player wages and league position.

Taking inspiration from the latter, we have decided to look at the value of the ten South American squads competing in the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, according to transfermarkt.com. We wonder if these current squad valuations will translate into qualification positions come the end of the campaign two years from now.

Of course international football is very different from club football. The format for one isn’t the same, the timing of the games is all over the place and of course an away game might be a ten hour flight and not a two hour train journey… but will we see a correlation between the value of the South American squads and their place in the CONMEBOL qualification table come its final round in September 2025? Let’s have a look.

1st: Brazil €940 Million Squad Value

If you go by squad value, Brazil will lead the South American table after all 18 matchdays have taken place. They are already two wins from two and in Vinicius Junior they have a superstar player with an individual value of €150 million. That figure alone is more than five different South American teams total squad value.

2nd: Argentina €791.5 Million Squad Value

Next up are the current World Champions. Argentina won’t mind a second place finish. They are still buzzing from their 2022 triumph in Qatar. They are also the only team, apart from neighbours and rivals Brazil, with two wins from two in qualifying so far. The continents two big hitters therefore are well on track to canter their way to the next World Cup.

3rd: Uruguay €428.8 Million Squad Value

Uruguay are eternal overachievers due to their modest population of under 3.5 million people and storied history of international trophies. Stunning young talent in the form of Federico Valverde and Darwin Nuñez takes them to third in the league table of squad value by some distance. The nation recently won the FIFA Under-20 World Cup in Argentina and now have the legendary Marcelo Bielsa honing the skills of this gifted young group. You will see them at the 2026 World Cup.

4th: Colombia €227.1 Million Squad Value

Colombia had a very disappointing campaign last time out as they failed to even make the play-off for the 2022 World Cup, but now things are looking up. The 4th most valuable squad in South America have started well with four points from a possible six. If they can keep their talisman Luis Diaz of Liverpool fit and firing then they will be on their way to the World Cup too. Home games in the heat of Barranquilla should be a key advantage for the Colombians.

5th: Ecuador €190 Million Squad Value

Ecuador’s squad value is deceiving as they are packed to the gills with young talent and that showed at the 2022 World Cup. They breezed past hosts Qatar and caused nations like Senegal and the Netherlands lots of issues. Moisés Caicedo, Pervis Estupiñán and Enner Valencia are three reasons why they will qualify for the next World Cup. The top six teams from South America will qualify automatically for the tournament, the top five valued squads in particular look like hot favourites.

6th: Paraguay €124.2 Million Squad Value

If the CONMEBOL 2026 qualification league goes by squad value then Paraguay will be the nation sneaking into the sixth and final automatic spot. This small nation haven’t been to the World Cup since 2010 when they made an impressive run to the quarter-finals, but they will feel energised by Miguel Almirón’s inspired form for Newcastle United. As well as their recent announcement as one of the World Cup 2030 hosts, even if it is just for one game. As we work our way down the list the difference in squad value amongst the nations decreases, Paraguay will need to prove their worth.

7th: Chile €94.1 Million Squad Value

Seventh place in the qualifying league will lead to a World Cup play-off spot for one South American nation. Will that be Chile? Last time out Peru faced off against Australia in the play-offs and were defeated. Chile will be looking for a top six finish to avoid such an ordeal. They aren’t far behind Paraguay in terms of squad value and even though they have come to the end of a Golden era that saw back to back Copa America titles they still have enough quality in their ranks to push the teams noted above.

8th: Venezuela €45.1 Million Squad Value

Despite defeat away to Colombia in their opening game Venezuela sit fifth in the table after two games thanks to a 1-0 home victory over Paraguay. Salomón Rondón of River Plate scored a stoppage time penalty to put his nation on the board and perhaps tempt them into believing that they can make the first World Cup Finals in their nation’s history. As of now Venezuela are the only CONMEBOL nation not to have reached the tournament. FIFA’s new extended World Cup format might help them change that.

9th: Peru €45 Million Squad Value

Peru aren’t traditionally considered one of the two worst teams on the continent. They came fifth in qualifying last time out but sadly couldn’t beat Australia in their Qatar 2022 play-off. Nonetheless they finished ahead of the likes of Colombia and their current squad value is just €100,000 off that of Venezuela in the position above. Peru have started OK considering they picked up a point away in Paraguay and their home defeat came at the hands of heavy qualification favourites Brazil.

10th: Bolivia €14.5 Million Squad Value

Last but not least it’s Bolivia who’s squad value is dwarfed by even that of Peru. It is fair to say Bolivia will need a miracle to try and salvage a seventh place play-off spot, not to mention an automatic qualifying position. The draw wasn’t kind for them as they played Brazil and Argentina in the opening two games, they were beaten comfortably by both teams and sit at the bottom of the table. Since 1954 Bolivia have only been present for one World Cup Finals tournament. If they are to change that they will need a lot of luck.

Like in club football a look at squad value or player wages can generally give you an idea of how any league table will end up. However, there are always exceptions to the rule and that is just one reason why football is the most beautiful sport on the planet.

This league campaign only lasts 18 games and it is spread over a vast continent where things like heat and altitude can make for some incredible home advantages. Surprises do happen, and the fact that there are a whole two years between the first and final game of this campaign also leaves room for ageing, injuries and perhaps some new heroes to play their part.

Expect Brazil and Argentina to walk this campaign. Ecuador, Uruguay and Colombia to qualify comfortably and the rest, bar Bolivia, to scrap it out for one automatic spot and one further play-off spot. The FIFA World Cup 2026 is coming to Mexico, Canada and the United States, and nobody wants to miss out.