The race for president has changed in the direction of Donald Trump after the first 2024 presidential debate. Trump now has a 3-point lead over President Biden in the battleground states collectively and a 2-point lead nationally.
An important factor here is motivation, not just persuasion: Democrats are not as likely as Republicans to say they will “definitely” vote now.
Perhaps in keeping with a race with two well-known candidates and a highly partisan electorate, more than 90 percent of Biden and Trump supporters say they would never consider the other candidate as they did before the debate, which helps to explain why the race has been quite stable for months. Remember that Mr. Biden had won a little bit in June, after Trump was convicted of crimes in New York, but that didn't drastically alter the career either.
That said, today's preference contest implies an Electoral College advantage for Trump.
Meanwhile, half of Joe Biden's 2020 voters don't think he should run this year, and when they don't, they're less likely to say they'll run in 2024 and also more likely to choose someone else. , whether Trump or a third-party candidate.
Donald Trump, for his part, believes that most Republicans feel strengthened after the debate, saying that it made them month eligible to vote. And the independents remain hotly contested, with Trump now narrowly missing out.
Across the country, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they will definitely turn out in 2024. And Republicans currently have a similar-sized turnout advantage in battleground states, bolstering Trump's lead with likely voters there.
When Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West are included in a national poll test, Trump's national lead over Biden expands to four points. Kennedy draws roughly equally from the two candidates, but Mr. Biden yields slightly more to Stein and West, lowering his overall percentage.
For many voters, the age of both candidates is a factor, not just Mr. Biden's. When people see an equivalence, Mr. Biden benefits: He leads Trump among those who say both.
Mr. Biden's problem is that he continues to fare poorly among those for whom only his age is a factor.
Immediately after the debate, The CBS News poll showed a growing number of voters who believe Mr. Biden lacked the cognitive health for the job and should not run. A whopping seven in 10 still say he shouldn't run. (It's now three points lower than immediately after the debate, perhaps because the Biden campaign pushed back on the idea, but it remains the dominant view among voters and a sizable share of four in 10 Democrats.)
Mr. Biden did not gain any ground on Trump on a number of personal qualities: Mr. Trump makes Mr. Biden seem competent, tough and focused. The president continues to be seen as more compassionate.
CBS News considers the battleground states most likely to decide the Electoral College election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin..
This CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted with a representative sample of 2,826 registered voters nationwide interviewed between June 28 and July 2, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race and education, according to the US Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past voting. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.3 points. Battlegrounds are AZ GA MI NC NV PA WI.
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