The pace of babies being born each year in the United States has slowed to a new record low, according to an analysis of 2023 birth certificate data released Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Last year's slowdown marks the official end of the baby boom which began during the COVID-19 pandemic. At least 3,591,328 babies were born in the US in 2023, down 2% from the 3,667,758 born in 2022.
That's on par with annual declines seen before the pandemic, which averaged 2 percent fewer babies each year, the report said.
The previous year there were already signs that a pandemic increase in births was coming to an end. There was quite a bit of it fewer babies born in 2022 compared to 2021, although agency officials said at the time that this drop was not large enough to be considered a statistically significant drop.
“Last year, the difference was very small. This year, it's something on the order of 74,000 or so. So it's pretty big,” said Brady Hamilton, one of the report's authors. on CBS News.
While records for nearly 100 percent of registered births have already been reported to the agency, the report's estimates remain “provisional estimates” until the last remaining data is reported.
The new report Thursday from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics comes from closely watched data from birth certificates the agency collects from state and local authorities throughout the year. The report was released earlier this year. Last year's interim report didn't come out until June.
“We started early and kept the momentum going, and that's how we got that early release,” Hamilton said.
The total fertility rate is low
Last year's total births add up to a rate of 1,616.5 births per 1,000 women in the US. This figure, called the total fertility rate, calculates the average number of births women will have in their lifetime if current rates remain the same.
Unless the United States reaches 2,100 births per 1,000, which equates to an average of 2.1 children per woman, the total population could shrink without further influxes of people. Estimates from the US Census Bureau have linked recent population growth to a surge in immigration and a drop in deaths.
The US total fertility rate has been below what is needed to replace the deaths of previous generations since 1971.
“Think about it in terms of the woman and her partner. So if you have a total fertility rate of two, you're replacing it and you're replacing it in the population. It has to be 2.1 to offset the mortality.” . Hamilton said.
The number of births in 2023 was flat or decreased from 2022 for most groups, except for Hispanic women, who saw a 1% increase.
Plateau of teenage birth rates
Birth rates by age group also fell or were unchanged between 2022 and 2023 for virtually all women, young and old. That includes women ages 40 to 44, who had previously seen the rate of babies born increase nearly every year since 1985.
However, a once the teenage birth rate plummeted it has gradually flattened in recent years, falling by 3% from 2022 to 2023. For every 1,000 adolescents aged 15 to 19, 13.2 births were recorded.
“It's important to remember that if we look at previous years, from 2007 to 2022, the birth rate for teenagers aged 15 to 19 declined by 7% on average. And now it's declining by 2 and 3%. So that the question is why,” Hamilton said.
“We need to look to find out why it's only slowing down to half of what it's been doing, and it could be a number of factors. There's a lot to investigate and figure out.”
The drop was smaller among the youngest teenagers, ages 15 to 17, whose birth rate remained largely unchanged from 2022.
Cesarean deliveries are on the rise again
According to the CDC's new report, 32.4 percent of new births were delivered by cesarean section in 2023, up from 32.1 percent in 2022.
This represents the fourth consecutive increase in caesarean section rate in the wake of the pandemic, after rates had slowed between 2009 and 2019.
Cesarean delivery rates are the highest black mothers, rising to 37% last year. Rates also gradually increased for Asian, white, and Hispanic women.
Among low-risk deliveries, cesarean deliveries have risen to 26.6%. Low-risk births are defined as the birth of singleton babies at term, at least after 37 weeks, to mothers who have never had children before.
This is the highest rate since 2013, the report said.
