“We detect a strong message of protest in the anti-Labour vote in our analysis right now, so it's entirely possible that these people will return to the fold or at least prefer Labor when it comes to the crisis. That's if they're still listening for the elections”.
The findings come as Premier Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers seek to lift the government's fortunes in next week's federal budget after heated debates over gender-based violence against women, student protests over the Middle East and the border protection.
Premier Anthony Albanese (left) has maintained his personal lead over Peter Dutton in NSW and Victoria, but the Opposition Leader has turned things around in his home state of Queensland.Credit: Fairfax Average
The poll results show voting trends over many months and do not reflect views on the recent debate on violence against women.
The most dramatic changes the new analysis shows are a fall in support for Albanians and Labor over the past year, wiping out gains made during the post-election “honeymoon” period, when the party's primary vote rose from 33% to 41%. one hundred.
Labour's core support has fallen from 34% in February to 32% in March and 30% in April, giving it a primary vote of 32% over the quarter. The Coalition's primary vote over the past three months is 36% across the country, confirming that the party has returned to the core support it recorded at the election.
Results from all marginal electorates over the past three months show Labor has a 29% primary vote in these seats. This is down over the past year after reaching 39% in the June 2023 quarter, but slightly higher than the party's 27% result at the last election. The Coalition has dropped from 41 to 38 percent of marginal electorates over the two years.
Albanese remains ahead of Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in NSW and Victoria when voters are asked to name their preferred prime minister, with a national lead of 40 to 31 per cent.
But Dutton has turned around his home state of Queensland, where he is now the preferred premier by a margin of 40 to 34 per cent. Albanese led that measure by 39 per cent to 32 per cent in Queensland in the final three months of last year.
State-by-state results show Labor's primary vote has fallen in key states since the last quarter, with the Coalition increasing its core support from 30 to 34 per cent in Victoria, from 34 to 36 per cent in NSW and from 35 to 40 percent. hundred in Queensland.
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Labor risks losing office or falling into a minority government if it cannot hold key seats in Western Australia, where it made big gains in the last election. The government has promised the state at least $5 billion a year in additional GST payments, angering other states, and Albanese is making regular visits to WA to bolster support.
New analysis shows Western Australian voters have reduced their support for Labor from 34 per cent to 32 per cent since the December quarter. This compares with the Labor primary vote in the state of 37 per cent at the last election.
The Coalition has a primary vote of 35 per cent in WA in the latest Resolve analysis, in line with the result of the last election.
Resolve's quarterly analysis is based on responses from 4,614 voters in three surveys from February to April. This allows comparison with previous quarterly periods and the result of the last federal election.
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The survey groups change each month and reflect the national population, meaning sample sizes are smaller for states such as WA and therefore the margin of error for the results is greater state by state
Because Resolve polls ask voters to designate their primary vote in the same way they fill out their lower house ballots in an election, there was no “undecided” category in the results, a key difference from other surveys.
Reed said economic pressures were driving some of the shift in support.
“The Coalition's biggest gains over the past two years have come from older people, particularly men, smaller states, rural areas and people on lower or fixed incomes,” he said. “These groups tend to be more sensitive to financial pressures.”
Men increased their support for the Coalition primary vote from 33% in the December quarter to 39% in the past three months. Women increased their support for the Coalition from 31 to 33% over the same time.
Freshwater Strategy Surveys a The Australian Financial Review have shown a similar trend among men. Freshwater director Michael Turner said Labor's primary vote in December 2022 was 37% for men and women, but fell to 29% for men and 33% for women in last month's survey.
“In fact, there has been a greater decline in support for work among men,” Turner said.
Resolve polls show the Labor primary vote among men has fallen from 41% in the December 2022 quarter to 31% in the three months to April this year, and from 39% to 33% among women women during the same period.
Labor lost ground across all three age cohorts in the Resolve polls, with voters aged 55 and over dropping their support from 38% in the December quarter to 30% in the past three months.
Support from younger voters declined by a smaller amount. The primary vote fell from 38 to 35% over the same period among 18-34 year olds, while 35-54 year olds saw their Labor primary vote drop from 34 to 31%.
The Coalition won more support in each of these age cohorts compared to late last year, including an increase in the primary vote from 40 to 46 per cent among voters aged 55 and over.
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